Google AI Overview CTR: What to Expect

Setting realistic CTR expectations for AI Overviews prevents both unfounded panic and misplaced optimism. The numbers differ significantly from traditional organic results—and vary based on whether you're cited in the AI Overview, appearing in organic results below it, or both. Understanding these benchmarks helps you evaluate performance accurately.

The New CTR Reality

Traditional organic CTR benchmarks don't apply when AI Overviews appear.

Baseline shifts:

Position	Traditional CTR	CTR with AI Overview	Change
Position 1 organic	27-30%	15-20%	-35% to -45%
Position 2 organic	15-18%	8-12%	-35% to -45%
Position 3 organic	10-12%	5-7%	-40% to -50%
Positions 4-10	2-7%	1-3%	-50% or more

When AI Overviews appear, organic positions shift down the page and receive fewer clicks. But this tells only part of the story.

CTR Benchmarks by Citation Status

Your CTR depends heavily on whether your site appears within the AI Overview.

Cited in AI Overview

Being cited creates a different CTR dynamic than organic-only visibility.

Citation CTR expectations:

Citation Position	Expected CTR	Notes
1st source cited	8-15%	Highest AI citation visibility
2nd source cited	5-10%	Still significant traffic
3rd-5th source	2-6%	Diminishing but measurable
Collapsed sources	0.5-2%	Requires user expansion

Key insight: First-position citations in AI Overviews can outperform traditional Position 1 organic results when that AI Overview also pushes organic results down the page.

Not Cited, Organic Only

When AI Overviews appear but your site isn't cited, expect compressed CTR.

Non-cited CTR expectations:

Your Organic Position	Expected CTR
Position 1 (below AI Overview)	10-18%
Position 2 (below AI Overview)	6-10%
Position 3 (below AI Overview)	3-6%
Position 4+ (below AI Overview)	1-3%

These numbers represent 35-50% drops from traditional CTR benchmarks.

Cited AND Ranking Organically

The best scenario: appearing in both the AI Overview and organic results.

Combined visibility CTR:

Total CTR Potential (estimated):

Citation in AI Overview: 5-12%
Organic position (reinforcement): +2-5%
Brand recognition lift: +1-3%
-----------------------------------
Combined potential: 8-20%

This dual presence creates brand reinforcement—users see your site twice, increasing click probability.

CTR Variation by Query Type

Different queries produce different CTR patterns.

Informational Queries

Example: "What is answer engine optimization"

Visibility Type	Expected CTR	Why
AI Overview citation	3-8%	Users often get answer without clicking
Organic below	5-12%	Fewer clicks needed after AI answer
Combined	8-18%	Curiosity drives some exploration

Informational queries see highest zero-click rates. Expect lower CTR but recognize that brand visibility occurs without clicks.

Commercial Investigation Queries

Example: "Best AEO tools for small business"

Visibility Type	Expected CTR	Why
AI Overview citation	8-15%	Users want more detail before decisions
Organic below	8-15%	Commercial intent drives clicks
Combined	15-25%	High intent increases all click rates

Commercial queries maintain higher CTR because users need more information than AI summaries provide.

Comparison Queries

Example: "AEO vs traditional SEO"

Visibility Type	Expected CTR	Why
AI Overview citation	6-12%	Some comparisons answered directly
Organic below	6-12%	Users often want detailed breakdown
Combined	12-22%	Comparison seekers explore multiple sources

Comparison queries fall between informational and commercial CTR patterns.

Transactional Queries

Example: "Buy AEO audit service"

AI Overviews appear less frequently for transactional queries. When they do:

Visibility Type	Expected CTR	Why
AI Overview citation	10-20%	High purchase intent
Organic below	12-20%	Direct action desired
Combined	18-30%	Buyers click to transact

Transactional queries maintain relatively strong CTR because users need to reach a site to complete actions.

Industry-Specific CTR Expectations

CTR varies by industry based on query complexity and user behavior.

Industry CTR benchmarks (AI Overview present):

Industry	Citation CTR	Organic CTR	Notes
B2B SaaS	6-12%	8-14%	Complex decisions drive clicks
E-commerce	4-10%	6-12%	Product pages need visits
Professional services	8-15%	10-16%	High-value decisions
Healthcare information	5-10%	8-14%	Users verify with multiple sources
Financial services	6-12%	8-15%	Sensitive topics need depth
General content	3-8%	5-10%	Varies widely by topic

B2B and professional services see higher CTR because purchase decisions require more research than AI summaries provide.

Setting Realistic CTR Targets

Use these frameworks to establish achievable CTR goals.

If You're Currently Not Cited

Target progression:

Phase 1: Get cited in AI Overviews
- Target: Appear in any source position
- Expected CTR: 2-5%
- Timeline: 2-4 months optimization

Phase 2: Improve citation position
- Target: Top 3 cited sources
- Expected CTR: 5-10%
- Timeline: 3-6 months

Phase 3: Achieve dual visibility
- Target: Citation + Page 1 organic
- Expected CTR: 10-18%
- Timeline: 6-12 months

If You're Already Cited

Optimization targets:

Current State	Target	Expected CTR Gain
Positions 4-6 cited	Top 3 position	+3-5% CTR
Position 2-3 cited	Position 1	+3-8% CTR
Position 1 cited	Maintain + organic	+2-5% CTR

Monitoring and Measuring CTR

Track these metrics to understand your AI Overview CTR performance.

What you can measure:

Metric	How to Track	Limitations
Organic CTR	Google Search Console	Doesn't separate AI-affected queries
AI referral traffic	GA4 channel grouping	Indirect measurement
Query-level performance	GSC by query	AI Overview presence not indicated
Click trends over time	GSC date comparisons	External factors affect data

What you can't directly measure:

AI Overview impression counts (Google doesn't report)
Citation-specific click attribution
AI Overview CTR vs. organic CTR for same query

Work with available data while acknowledging measurement gaps.

When CTR Drops—And When It's Acceptable

Not all CTR declines require action.

Acceptable CTR drops:

Situation	Why It's Acceptable
AI Overview appears, CTR drops 30%	Expected behavior
Citation gained, CTR stable	Brand visibility increased
Informational queries see low CTR	Zero-click searches are normal

CTR drops requiring action:

Situation	Recommended Response
Lost citation, CTR dropped 50%+	Audit and re-optimize content
Competitors gaining citations	Analyze their approach
CTR declining month-over-month	Investigate content freshness

Key Takeaways

Setting realistic AI Overview CTR expectations:

Expect 35-50% lower organic CTR when AI Overviews appear above your listings
Citation position matters - 1st cited source gets 8-15% CTR, 5th position gets 2-6%
Query type affects CTR significantly - commercial queries maintain higher CTR than informational
Industry benchmarks vary - B2B and professional services see higher CTR than general content
Dual visibility (citation + organic) maximizes CTR - aim for 10-20% combined
Measurement is limited - use available data with awareness of what you can't track
Some CTR decline is expected - focus on citation presence, not just raw CTR numbers

AI Overview CTR differs fundamentally from traditional organic CTR. Calibrate expectations accordingly, optimize for citations, and measure what you can while accepting measurement limitations.

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Matt Pru